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Designing the tax is not uncomplicated, but it is a promising way forward
THIS newspaper has long advocated a carbon tax as the best way to deal with a warming climate. This month we asked Cambridge Econometrics, an economic-modelling firm, to assess the impact of a carbon tax on the economy. To keep things simple and allow for gradual adjustment, we proposed that it should raise revenues equal to 1% of GDP by 2020, and that other policies with similar objectives (fuel duty, subsidies for renewable energy, Britain’s membership of the European emissions-trading scheme—the ETS—and so forth) would be abolished or cut back.
The results are surprising. A frequent worry about carbon taxes is that they will hurt business and the economy. But in our simulation Britain’s economic performance would improve. Despite raising an extra GBP11 billion in net revenue by 2015 and GBP18 billion by 2020, our carbon tax (GBP31 a tonne in 2015) would help economic performance, not hamper it. Output would be 1.2% higher by 2020 than under the current arrangements. ...
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